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17/2009
17.08.2009
Editor's
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Range trading
Hi,
US stock markets confirmed that they want to stay in established range
And one cannot expect that they will do something important till end of summer time will come.
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Declining trading volume confirms this idea. A lot of traders and portfolio managers are on holiday.
But when they will return they will have to reconsider their bullish bias again.
Why? Last macro data points already to weakening economy. Maybe it is not so much bullish.
Retail sales are in decline in USA. And it happened although a lot of
analysts expected that "cash-for-clunkers" program will push spending
up. Instead customers bought car but spent less for other items.
The same situation is in Europe. The only country with a lot of
savings, Germany, reported decline in retail sales. And if Germans will
not start spending more, their economy will not be able to rise again
and also to push up whole Europe.
Their export will not be able to "save" them again. Their major
customers - rest of Europe and US consumer - are now in saving mode.
And they will stay there for few more years I think.
And as can be seen from "success" of "cash-for-clunkers" program around
the world, nothing can push still highly leveraged customer to new
spending today. We are facing new global economic situation when
spending should come from big world savers like Germany and Asia.
China is trying to push their citizens for higher spending, but Germans
do not want to spend more. And other European countries are in bad
shape. It can lead to new decline in European economies in next months.
Happy trading,
Richard Koza
portfolio manager
ATWEL International
Stock market basics
Every trader and investor has to know all basics about stock markets. Good compilation of everything important can be found here.
.... top of newsletter
Sector and ETF Watch List
Long
ETF watch list: PPH, XBI, HYG, EWZ,......
Short
ETF watch list: XLE, RSX, USO, .....
As I
already mentioned in my blog, I watch EURUSD for possible topping
pattern and entering of short swing and position trade with targets in
1.35 and below
Stocks Watch List
Long trade/ Buy watch list: MSFT, NTAP, SNE, WMT, .........
Short sell trade watch list: CEPH, RGLD, ICE, CME, RIMM, .....
These stocks I monitor for trade in my fund
Questions ?
I will be pleased to reply to any of your questions. Do you have
something to discuss ? Or would you like to read something in next
issue of newsletter or on my web pages or in my blog ? Let me know .
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