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16/2009
03.08.2009
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Bullish mood without doubt
Hi,
US stock
markets are in very positive bias. They are attacking important psychological
levels.
NASDAQ did it first and touched 2000 points. SP500 finished only few points
below 1000 pts.
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I think they will try to touch these levels once again. Sentiment is
bullish and investors are in buying mode during this earnings season.
There are not any serious selloffs and all important sectors are in
good shape on their charts.
I noticed that a lot of analytics mentioned connection between stock
markets and economy. They are telling that stock markets are leading
indicator and that means that economy is already positioned for
recovery.
Maybe. But I am cautious. I do not accept such argument when thinking
about economy. World is in totally different situation then 1 or 2
years ago. There is not strong demand prepared to buy out economies
from the troubles.
US consumer is not is good situation. It has debt which should be paid. He will not save world economies by new buying.
And Asia? Asian consumers are not accustomed to big spending. They
prefer to save most of their money. So they will not save world trade
right now. They have to learn about their wealth first.
So I do not expect that demand will be strong. Unemployment will be
high and saving will rise, especially in developed countries.
And it will show in earnings and sales of companies around the world. A
lot of bulls could be surprised by results of 3rd quarter.
Happy trading,
Richard Koza
portfolio manager
ATWEL International
International ETF
International ETFs represent good opportunity for trading and
investment in current globalised economy. There are some economies
going up and some going down every time.
.... top of newsletter
Sector and ETF Watch List
Long
ETF watch list: ECH, BZF, PPH, JNK,......
Short
ETF watch list: XLI, XLE, RSX, .....
Crude oil
price is rising again? Does it mean that global demand is picking up? I am not
sure. US consumer is under pressure of his own debt and any rise in price of
crude oil will lower his spending ability. And Asian economies (especially
China) are doing their best to secure low price for crude by already signed
long term contracts.
I see any rise into resistance level above 72 USD as opportunity how to open
mid-term sell short trade with crude in my fund.
Stocks Watch List
Long trade/ Buy watch list: AGN, BVF, GCA, SNE, WMT, .........
Short sell trade watch list: SCHN, RGLD, ICE, CME, FLIR, .....
These stocks I monitor for trade in my fund
Questions ?
I will be pleased to reply to any of your questions. Do you have
something to discuss ? Or would you like to read something in next
issue of newsletter or on my web pages or in my blog ? Let me know .
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