Hi, Friday's expiration pushed stock market volume above average, but I have to see action in next days to be more precise what to expect on stock markets. Now I start to see more and more bearish charts.

Reflation trade is still present. Crude oil is up, USD down.

I am little surprised by strength of this rally from March. I did not expect such strong rally . One more lesson for me!

I do not expect that these levels will hold very long. World trade levels are far lower then year ago .
US customers are creating savings. High price of oil is another  problem as it is working as tax for them. They will spend less on another items.

Also demand from Emerging markets will not be able to push consumption to levels seen in last years.

So I do not think that commodity rally can last much longer. I am watching for signs of weakness and will be ready to enter short trades. Crude Oil , Gold, Silver....

USD weakness against some currencies is also too big.  AUD, EUR should not be so strong and this strength will press hard to their exports.

I think that USD will strengthen against some currencies but against some Asian currencies it will be weaker in mid term period. If  somebody does not want to hold USD currency, then good choice could be some of Asian currencies.  

Or maybe Canadian dollar. But I would like to wait for some correction as USD is now very oversold. Similar trade I prepare for my ETF trading strategies in my Global Macro fund.

Happy trading, 

Richard

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