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12/2009
08.06.2009
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Trouble in Baltics
Hi,
crude oil touched 70 USD per barrel last week. It was surprise for me. I did not expect such strong rally in oil.
It is probably effect of strong bullish mood on stock markets.
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Stock prices and also commodity prices shot up during last weeks. It is
probably again idea of reflation trade - i.e. again strong inflation ,
huge world manufacturing and trade, weak US dollar etc...
But can we expect return of good old days from a year or more ago ? I do not think so.
Take oil as an example. Top person from OPEC told last week on
Bloomberg TV that demand for oil is low. That crude is stored on big
floating tankers .
I do not think that it is good to stay against such huge trend like
this bullish one in crude. But based on my assumptions I am
watching price for signs of trend change. I want to be prepared for
strong drop of crude oil price.
Finally there are first signs of rising troubles in emerging Europe.
Baltics are the key now. Latvia has its own currency in peg with EUR.
But economy is shrinking fast, unemployment is rising. Money are
leaving country. How long can Latvian central bank defend local
currency in peg against devaluation ? Not so long.
IMF or EU are not showing helping hand now. But something has to happen soon there.
It will be very important how these problems will be solved. If it will
be solved by some helping hand (IMF, EU, Germany ?) or by strong market
force. Solution can bring new era of stability in EU zone or new era of
crashes in EU zone.
Happy trading,
Richard
Stop loss tips
Using stop loss and maximum risk levels is good idea for every trader. These points should be implemented in every trading plan ...
.... top of newsletter
Sector and ETF Watch List
Long
ETF watch list: FDN, SWH, DBA, JNK, UDN , .....
Short
ETF watch list: TTH, XHB, IEF, TLH, ...
ITA is ETF tracking Dow Jones Aerospace and defense sector. It made
nice bullish move last week. I am watching for some pullback to open
new trade.
Stocks Watch List
Long trade/ Buy watch list: BA, BEAV, CDNS, CL, COL, CTSH,.......
Short sell trade watch list: DT,LOW, MHO,RYL,.....
Questions ?
I will be pleased to reply to any of your questions. Do you have
something to discuss ? Or would you like to read something in next
issue of newsletter or on my web pages or in my blog ? Let me know .
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