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10/2009
11.05.2009
Editor's
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Nevereding story for bulls ?
Hi,
SP500 is on its journey to 940 - 950 resistance area. Nasdaq already touched 200SMA and made its work. So it is resting now.
I think we will see few more days of market's rise till SP500 will reach level mentioned above.
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Also global sentiment is changing. A lot of analysts and investors are
telling us that the worst is over and we are now seeing new bull rally
which can move up further.
And also a lot of trades , which were active before this crisis , are
starting to be popular again. China bull, commodity bull, USD bear,
etc...
Everybody thinks that new consumption is starting again and so new
production is necessary and then commodity are necessary etc..
But I am not so bullish. I think that some restocking was needed.
Stocks started to be quite empty after last year shock. But
consumption will not rise to level we have seen several years ago.
Consumers are under debt press. And it means that they will buy less. Especially in US.
Situation in Europe is quite interesting as a lot of consumers are not
so under big stress as unemployment benefits are paid to people which
lost job. So they are not feeling so big pain. We have to wait 6
- 9 months . Then these benefit will be finished and people will not
have new work.
I do not think that such low unemployment levels will be again. The
levels of unemployment in US and Europe will be much higher ad will
stay there - above 10% for sure.
And such situation will not be positive for new consumption. Therefore
I see current rally in Oil, Silver, Gold , EURUSD as a good opportunity
to open position short sell trades in my fund.
Happy trading,
Richard
Stock trading books
I do not trade too much during current rally so I use some free time to read again some of my stock trading books.
.... top of newsletter
Sector and ETF Watch List
Long
ETF watch list: BDH, FDN, EWH, EWY, .....
Short
ETF watch list: IBB, IYR,UUP
Nasdaq is registering bearish distribution days with negative candlesticks and strong volume
Stocks Watch List
Long trade/ Buy watch list: CNDS, CTAS, CTSH, GCA, SGP,.......
Short sell trade watch list: APOL, CELG, CEPH, IACI, AZO,.....
Questions ?
I will be pleased to reply to any of your questions. Do you have
something to discuss ? Or would you like to read something in next
issue of newsletter or on my web pages or in my blog ? Let me know .
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