Hi, US stock markets are not very far from their important support levels. 800 point level for SP500 is like a magnet. Prices do not want to go very far from this area..

And nothing indicates that there is possibility for up move breakout. There is much bigger chance for breakdown and further decline. Next support level is near 630 points.

Earnings season is not very strong. Not earnings but numbers of  fired persons are most important numbers. And these numbers are worst for last 40 years. So one cannot expect that we will see new economy boom soon. Consumers are on retreat.

And it is not story of USA only.  There is not such thing like "decoupling theory" , very popular idea at the beginning of 2008. All other important economies and regions are based on economy boom or bust in USA.

Therefore bet on  emerging markets' boom is nothing else then very leveraged bet on boom of developed economies.

I do not expect any recovery this year. I think that all predictions for recovery in second half of 2009 are too much optimistic. We will start slowing of declines by the end of this year but not strong recovery and start of new boom.

But it does not mean that there are not profitable trading opportunities available. I did a lot of profitable trades on stock markets and also on Forex. My private fund is performing very well.

Richard

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